Alt: Cybergate9.Net

Cybergate9.Net

Online ramblings, current & historic, by just another human bean

International Students

Who needs 'em?

ShaunO

1-Minute Read

Just a random thought as we prepare to open our borders to international students because, according to politicians, it’s ‘so important an industry for us’..

According to these 2018 figures the average vice-chancellor salary (the VC is often labelled the CEO of a university) was $890,000 (figures given range $500K to $1.4M)..

So international students are important to who, exactly, you might ask?

Buggered if I know 😛…

Yield Curve Control at neutral

RBA turns gas off on housing hot air balloon

ShaunO

1-Minute Read

So that party’s over then..

The market’s pricing min. 2%+ for 10 year government bond yields, so ergo, by proxy, average inflation for next 10 years is estimated at, at least, 2%.

That is a very steep climb, very quickly out of the covid dip on 10yrs seen at a low of 1% for most of 2020 and again at 1% just 2 months ago.

The current inflation bump is at around 3-4%, the question is for how long?

The bond machinations moves the RBA rate from .1% , at a guess, to ~1% by late 2022, maybe back up as far as ~2.5% by late 2023. Corresponding housing lending rates would be back in the ballpark of 3.75-4.75% p.a.

By abandoning yield curve control, if that’s indeed what it’s doing, the RBA has possibly just purposely turn off the gas on the ever rising hot air balloon that is the Australian housing market.

But of course ‘markets are human’ and just as unpredictable, so I guess we’ll just have to wait and see..

Buggered if I know 😛

Big Tech isn't wearing any reins

and they have already bolted..

ShaunO

1-Minute Read

Peter is absolutely right of course, but, and there’s two massive buts:

  • the horse has already bolted (regulation, to have any affect on the situation, would have had to have been put into place at least a decade ago & would have to have been international)

  • no government is going to ‘be seen’ to be stifling commercial/business/market activity, they’re all too busy ‘worshiping at the feet of market capitalism’ and promoting that outlook to their electorates.

They are two show-stopping ‘buts’.. So whilst this might seem like a nice idea, it probably doesn’t pass the ‘reality test’..

Buggered if I know 😛

Politics matter

Unscrambling omlettes..

ShaunO

1-Minute Read

Politics do matter. And at an individual level if people watch stupid things, read stupid things, and believe in stupid things - guess what? they then actually vote for stupid things..

The UK situation in 2016 beggared belief - and I’d spent the best part of the previous 15 years in the UK by then. Then the pre actual brexit period 2016-2020 seemed like black comedy, and this last year, well what can you say, I guess predictably, it’s become a farce.

Sadly, however, this is not theatre.

This is peoples lives, real lives - not the lives of Boris Johnson or Nigel Farrage, who already had enough money even if they didn’t work another day in their life.. Real people with real families who need real jobs to earn real money so they can put food on the table and keep a roof over their head.

As William Keegan observes - “An economic omelette is being ruinously unscrambled”.

It’s now damned difficult to see how, having cracked the brexit-eggs, much can be done in the way of re-creating whole eggs and putting them back in the carton again..

Buggered if I know 😛

A story about inflation

and here it comes..

ShaunO

1-Minute Read

There’s no science to inflation, but you’re going to hear more about it (inflation) in the coming times (years probably).

If it interests you, try to ‘arm yourself’ with access to real analysis by reliable and interesting authors - this article by John Authers fits into that category in my opinion. The ‘vox-pop’ is always so short sighted as to be pretty much useless, and mostly cannot count as any sort of ‘analysis’ at all really.

My own take is, after a couple of decades of being interested in economics and politics, that crises (almost of any sort) seem to be inflationary. A key period I have in mind is the UK after the 2008 ‘GFC’ when UK inflation ran ahead of earnings by about 15% over 3-4 years by my reckoning (this chart seems to bear out my hunch).

Mind you, do remember that being interested in inflation is a ‘spectator sport’ because there is absolutely bugger all you can do about it 🙂

Buggered if i know 😛

Recent Posts

Categories

About

Online ramblings, both current and historic, by just another human bean